As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, global mobility professionals should prepare for potential immigration policy shifts depending on the outcome. In this two-part series featured on The View From The Top, Fragomen's Julia Onslow-Cole will cover recent updates and trends, then discuss how to strategically plan for different election scenarios.
Part 1: The Current Immigration Landscape
H-1B Visa Lottery Update
The H-1B visa program continues to see extremely high demand, with the annual quota filled via lottery each year. After last year's lottery issues caused by technical glitches that allowed multiple registrations, the government has taken steps to improve the system integrity.
While the acceptance rate has improved slightly from last year's 14%, it still falls well below the 33% rate from two years ago. Employers must be prepared for the likelihood that many employees may not secure an H-1B visa through the lottery.
Forthcoming Regulatory Changes
The federal government is expected to release new immigration regulations this year, with a mix of positive and negative impacts:
Improvements:
Better provisions to handle "cap gaps" when transitioning from student status to H-1B status.
Challenges:
Tighter, more restrictive definitions of "specialty occupations" and degree requirements, fail to account for the realities of modern career paths.
Focus on Attracting AI Talent
In an interesting development, a little-known section of an October 2023 executive order on artificial intelligence called for immigration policies to attract more AI experts to the United States. Specifically, it directed the Department of Labor to add AI occupations to the Schedule A shortage occupation list, allowing easier permanent residency for this in-demand skillset.
This underscores the escalating battle for AI talent and the need for employers to have a strong AI immigration strategy in place.
Preparing for Policy Changes Post-Election
With part one covering the current state of U.S. immigration, part two of this series will dive into how mobility programs should plan for potential policy shifts after the 2024 presidential election, depending on whether the incumbent or new party takes office.
While the exact changes are difficult to predict, we'll examine strategies global mobility teams can implement now to minimize disruption and remain compliant regardless of the election outcome. Immigration policies can change significantly depending on the administration's priorities. Having contingency plans and open communications with impacted employees will be critical as we move through this election cycle.
By staying ahead of the latest updates and trends, mobility professionals can best position their programs and talent deployment strategies for the new reality that will take shape in 2025.
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